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PHEVs release nearly 5x greater global warming emissions than official figures show, according to a new report.

Widening Gap In Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release just one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on analysis conducted by a advocacy group. This differs sharply with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% decrease in emissions.

Researchers examined information from in-vehicle fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 vehicles registered in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst participating in the study. “That gap is widening and creates a serious problem. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as petrol cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed most of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric power relative to total mileage. The team found that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, while lab estimates suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when running in EV mode, emission amounts were well above lab estimates. That occurred because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate independently, resulting to combustion motors burning gasoline for almost a third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Policy and Financial Implications

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed several large automaker companies to escape over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could spend about €500 more annually in operating expenses than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are clearly far from the mark,” stated a transport expert. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are little better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Political Debate and Industry Pressure

Hybrid cars have recently been drawn again into policy discussions as automakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car sector and resistance from EU countries with large automotive industries.

Some senior officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a potential “flexibility” solution to include in the legislation.

One external energy economics specialist, who was not involved with the research, described the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after a long period in which parts of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient information to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the difference between lab and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for gasoline or diesel cars,” they said. “Any regulatory changes regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and in the light of that evidence.”