A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
